Post No. 40: China and the U.S.: A Way Forward: Pervasive Peace and Prosperity
- Martin Sullivan
- Feb 4, 2025
- 11 min read
In Part One we explored whether humans are naturally violent and, if this were the case, there is not a lot we can do to prevent eventual conflict between the two largest Great Powers, China and the United States. If one looks at how Great Powers acted in the last few centuries, one would be justified in coming to this conclusion. Perhaps one way that humans (and other animals) are naturally violent is when they fear their self-preservation is at risk. Perhaps it is this fear that a wise and strong leader will try to manage in creative ways without resorting to violence and war. This post explores a way forward that could lead to continued peace and prosperity.
My conclusion in Part One was that there is a way forward that can avoid violent conflict but it would require wise leaders who can manage the two biggest reasons that Great Powers go to war with one another: Nationalism and Fear. I illustrated an example of a wise leader dealing with a Great Power, the Soviet Union, in Post No. 36, What We Might Learn from Two Past Presidents. In his speech at American University, five months before his assassination, President John Kennedy outlined his approach toward the U.S.S.R., the other Great Power at the time. The fear of the Soviet Union at the time of his speech, 1963, was palpable. For political leaders the safe approach was to speak belligerently and show toughness toward the Soviets. Instead, Kennedy bucked this orthodoxy and pointed to another way forward. He stated, “For we can seek a relaxation of tension without relaxing our guard. And, for our part, we do not need to use threats to prove that we are resolute … We are unwilling to impose our system on any unwilling people - but we are willing and able to engage in peaceful competition with any people on earth”. One can easily imagine how these words could apply to our current situation relative to China. Kennedy also spoke of a “warning to the American people … not to see only a distorted and desperate view of the other side, not to see conflict as inevitable, accommodation as impossible, and communication as nothing more than an exchange of threats …”. It is arguable that our fear of the Soviet Union was even greater at the time than our current fear of China, today’s Great Power adversary. Yet Kennedy went against his generals and the orthodoxy of the time to begin a series of peaceful dialogues with Soviet leaders. This precedent to have open dialogue to keep the peace was followed by succeeding presidents until the Soviet Union imploded by itself because of economic reasons. Its leaders were trapped in their own Idealogical web as their economy went down the tubes, spurred on by economic and military competition with the United States. The precedent Kennedy set is valid today. Let’s look at some specifics as to how this approach might be applied to China today.
The first step is to look our fears straight in the face. Ignoring these fears simply makes us blind. I received several comments from the last post that focused on some of these fears, specifically the fear that China wants to overtake us economically and militarily. China is taking concrete steps in this direction that give us all real concern. Let’s look at some of them.
For example last March General Laura Richardson testified before the House Armed Services Committee that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) “messages its investments as peaceful, but in fact, many serve as points of future multi-domain access for the PLA and strategic naval chokepoints”. Referring to Chinese investments in ports by the Panama Canal she stated “They are on the 20-yard line of our homeland”. Panama has a major port (Balboa) directly on the southern end of the Canal, and a port (Cristobal) just outside the northern end of the canal.
There is also palpable concern about China’s Belt and Road (BRI) initiative. Wikipedia describes it as “The BRI, known in China as the One Belt One Road and sometimes referred to as the New Silk Road, is a global infrastructure development strategy adopted by the Chinese government in 2013 to invest in more than 150 countries and international organizations. The BRI is composed of six urban development land corridors linked by road, rail, energy, and digital infrastructure, and the Maritime Silk Road linked by the development of ports.” One example that gives a concrete perspective of the BRI is the development of a high speed rail line from China through Pakistan directly to a port (Gwadar) on the Arabian Sea. This allows access to key maritime routes to Asia and Africa. China advertises these investments as a way to ease the transport of goods both up on land and at sea leading to increased prosperity for all involved. It is also a major way for China to export its goods and to obtain raw materials from some of the involved countries. Despite China’s stated peaceful intentions, the BRI is viewed in the United States with suspicion since it also has significant military advantages if converted for that purpose.
What is perhaps more or at least equally concerning is China’s military buildup, especially its Navy. China now has the largest Navy by number of ships. It continues to build more vessels, including aircraft carriers and submarines. The Pentagon suggests that China will triple its stockpile of nuclear weapons by 2030. Even more concerning is that they are building new delivery systems, like hypersonic missiles. China has significantly increased its military budget over the years. For example their official figures estimate a growth of over 7 percent for 2024, which is likely much higher than stated.
Does China have military posts outside its own territory, not including the posts within 600 miles of its coast, which China considers part of its territory. (These outposts on artificial islands, Spratly islands and others, are an effort to show dominance over Taiwan and reinforce China’s hegemony in their region. More on Taiwan and China in an appendix to this post). The answer is that China has only ONE overseas military post established in 2017 in Djibouti. It’s location is strategically located at a choke point between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden (which leads directly to the Indian Ocean). China touts this post as mainly a peacekeeping post to combat piracy in the area, however, it is large enough to dock an aircraft carrier. Interestingly the U.S. also has a major military post in Djibouti, (Camp Lemonnier), just six miles from China’s post. Both countries promote their military posts as mainly efforts to keep the peace in the region and to ensure each countries’ interests are being served. Perhaps the current cooperation at this location between China and the U.S. may indicate a creative approach for a way forward. Keep reading …
The U.S. fears China for the above and other reasons, for example for their spying and cyber espionage. Does China have reason to fear the United States? The U.S. has, not one, but hundreds of military installations throughout the world in 50+ countries. We also, in this century, invaded and occupied Afghanistan and Iraq. A low estimate of civilians killed as a direct result of violence from these U.S. invasions and occupations is over 200,000 civilians. We spend over 800 Billion on the military each year, which is over 18% of all yearly receipts taken in by the federal government. China spends about 230 Billion yearly, so the U.S. spends about three and a half times China’s annual military budget. Both countries have ample reasons to fear the other. So what is a wise leader to do to manage this fear?
Just as it is important to realistically look at evidence for fears of war, there should also be a realistic look at evidence for continued peace. Let’s first look at evidence that the U.S. is a country that seeks peace. Within the U.S. most people have no doubts that the U.S. is a country that wants peace. International trade is very important to us and we have spent and are spending tens of billions of dollars every year ensuring the peaceful transport of goods on the high seas and on land. The U.S. military has been a major factor in generally peaceful relations among Great Powers since World War II. Both China and the U.S. are huge benefactors of this peace, that allows for unhampered international trade. The result is that China and other Asian countries have disproportionately increased their wealth and decreased the number of people in their countries living in poverty. China has also been given significant trade benefits, especially since 1980 when the U.S. granted China Most Favored Nation status. In recent years however, the U.S., although it has not changed China’s official status, has instituted extra tariffs on Chinese goods in an attempt to make up for what it considers unfair Chinese trade imbalances.
What evidence is there that China wants peaceful relations and is not inclined toward war? China has not engaged in significant military intervention in other countries in the last several decades. The main exception occurred over fifty years ago under Mao Tse Tung in 1950 when China invaded and annexed Tibet, which it considered a historic part of China. Also in 1979 China briefly invaded Vietnam and withdrew after about one month. Like the U.S., China is highly motivated to keep international trade moving and peaceful. They are just as dependent, perhaps more, on ensuring the peaceful exchange of trade throughout the globe. China and Xi frequently cite their Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence: “Mutual respect for each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, Mutual nonaggression, Mutual non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, Equality and mutual benefit, and Peaceful coexistence.” This alone is not to be relied on, but it is a clear expression of their intent, if one can believe it. Perhaps the most significant evidence that China does not want war, but peace, is that they have their hands full managing their economy for their 1.4 billion people, over three times the U.S. population. Their belt and road initiative is meant to ensure continued prosperity for their domestic economy, an economy that would be severely disrupted by war.
A wise leader will not let the U.S fall behind in the competition with China. For example China’s Five Year Plan calls for increasing R&D spending by more than 7 percent, and on self-reliance for core digital technologies such as semiconductors and AI. A glaring example of where the U.S. is behind China is in the mechanization of ports and in focusing military spending on modern new weaponry. China has followed the U.S. lead in placing a focus on being less reliant on foreign goods and increasing the percentage of goods they manufacture for their own domestic consumption. They have not yet adopted the slogan “Make China Great Again” but their policies reflect this. China is also laser focused on merit and practicality. Both parties being better as a result of competition is a good thing, and serves to reduce the level of fear in both countries.
A wise and strong leader will be able to make the case for their country and negotiate so that there is a win-win situation that lessens the fear factor. For a long time the U.S. has allowed China a free ride in the way that they have prospered from the global order that the U.S. had created after World War II. This has come at considerable expense for the U.S. A wise leader will be able to have a good relationship with his or her counterpart and be able to facilitate the complex negotiations that are absolutely essential. They should have an expectation in the goodwill of the other side and, in the words of President Kennedy, “… not to see only a distorted and desperate view of the other side, not to see conflict as inevitable, accommodation as impossible, and communication as nothing more than an exchange of threats …”. An example where China and the U.S. can work together is in preventing idealogical terrorism, whether it is from distorted Islamic ideologies or any other source, that has infected the Middle East, Africa and several Asian countries.
We are about to inaugurate a new President on January 20, 2025. I urge U.S. citizens to do what they can to lower the current temperature against China. Perhaps even contacting their Senators suggesting some of what I have written here. I myself have contacted New Jersey Senator Andy Kim on this topic. I think President-elect Trump may have the ability to create a meeting of minds with President Xi. I know that many think he is an incompetent bully, but let’s give him a chance. For example on December 16th at a press conference at Mar-a-Lago, President-elect Trump told reporters “China and the United States can together solve all the problems in the world, if you think about it. So it’s very important. And you know, he was a friend of mine. He was here for a long time, right in that spot, except sitting in a very comfortable chair. He wasn’t standing like you are. But we spent hours and hours talking, and he is an amazing guy.”
I will end this post with a quote from martinsblogs.com Post No. 35, “Imagine”, and one from Shakespeare. Perhaps I am overly optimistic, but as Shakespeare wrote, “Doubts are our traitors and make us lose the gain we might otherwise have won.” From Post No. 35: “In my imagined society, the United States would work hand-in-hand with China to avoid future wars because together they do have the overwhelming power needed to prevent this violence, just as effective governments have overwhelming power within their own borders. At the same time, we would continual to compete economically with China, and keep our military strong …”.
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