Post No. 15: Great Power Relations, Part 3

As described in parts one and two, the historical approach toward great power relations, Realism, has led to wars among powerful nations. It is important to note that these wars would not occur without the support of the majority of the people in the countries involved. This is not simply an academic concern for even now I hear quite a few of my friends and fellow citizens adopting a belligerent attitude toward China. The question is, are we going to continue to repeat the same mistake as we did in the past? Are we capable of re-imagining a different approach that is more likely to lead to peace and well-being among nations? Or do we want to continue to stoke fear and indulge in self righteousness. It’s possible to be protective of our nation and at the same time imagine a practical way to leverage our wealth and military superiority without invoking fear from the other side. This opportunity is within our reach, but it will only happen with encouragement from you and me as citizens. We are citizens of the most powerful country in the world that has the opportunity to forge a lasting peace rather than continual discord. A possible way forward along these lines is the purpose of this post.

There are two main factors that make a great power: wealth and size of population, both of which can lead to a strong military. Currently the United States is clearly the unrivaled superpower on earth. China is our next largest competitor. China has over four times the population of the U.S. and is expected to match us in GDP within ten years. Some opine that China will go the way of the Soviet Union especially considering it’s declining birth rate. China is a practical nation that embraces aspects of both Capitalism and Communism. It is not the incompetent and ideological Soviet Union. Expecting China to implode like the Soviet Union is fighting the last war. China will be a powerful nation for the foreseeable future and making China the evil enemy at this point in time is not in our long term interest. Yet this appears to be just what many politicians, U.S. citizens and the news media are now doing. There is another way.

If we were not challenged by any strong power, such as after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, then we would hopefully continue the Pax Americana from that brief period. But China is now a reality as a challenging power. China has hegemony in their region of the world. There are no neighboring powers that can threaten them. That leaves them free, as we are, to venture into other regions of the globe.

We don’t agree with China’s authoritarian Communist form of government, and they don’t agree with ours. We fervently argue that a representative democracy, with basic freedoms of its citizens, is by far the best form of government for the well-being of nations. Should we then intervene in other countries who have a form of government that is anathema to us. This is a question that seems to have been settled in the latter half of the 17th second century with the Treaty of Westphalia. This treaty ended the interventionist religious wars in Europe. The lesson learned was that any invasion of another country to spread one’s own religion, form of government, or ideology is unwise and leads to unending warfare.

The way forward that leads to peace and the absence of continually being on the brink of potential war, is to have and be willing to use unrivaled military superiority! The US by itself no longer has this capability but the combined military might of both the US and China does. Is this union possible or is it a naïve pipe dream? Let’s examine it.

What is it that the US and China both have in common?

1. We both desire trade among nations with no disruptive conflicts.

2. We are both relatively non-aggressive nations. Both nations are not without fault in this area but compared to other great powers both nations are relatively non-aggressive.

3. We both have unrivaled military superiority in our respective region of the world.

4. We are both nations that value practical reasoning. (This discounts the Mao Tse Tung era that went down the rabbit hole of crazy Communism.).

5. Both nations are competitors but both want legitimate, fair competition. Until recently, the US has allowed China trade advantages that they now no longer need. We should ensure China doesn’t cheat.

6. Both nations are suspicious of the other, and both nations will continue to spy on one another as much as they are able. This is simply unavoidable at this time, but it is much better than warfare.

The starting point is to have a vision and begin a dialogue with China. Finding a way to end Russia’s war with Ukraine could be an unlikely opportunity. China is uneasy about Russia’s invasion and its disruptive force in the Eurasia region. Although they are not actively helping Russia, they are more than content to step back and watch the discomfort of the U.S. who they consider to be arrogant and hypocritical. What if we came to China asking for their help to find a solution to ending this war? China is able to exert strong pressure on Russia if they care to. If we were to have any chance at a meeting of minds with China, we would have to recognize that expanding NATO to Russia’s borders had unintended consequences. We would have to be prepared to remove all offensive military equipment from Russia’s borders. Russia, in turn would have to end their invasion with no additional territory than they had before the war. The US would have to convince NATO and Ukraine, and China would have to convince Russia. The glue that would hold all of this together is an agreement between the US and China to use their joint overwhelming military superiority to ensure the integrity of the existing borders of U.N. Member States in Europe and Asia.

There are complexities that would have to be worked out with this scheme, yet it is possible with proper vision and leadership. For it to happen in the United States there would have to be a ground swell from the citizenry encouraging dialogue over military posturing. Recent news that the US is planning to put offensive military equipment on a Philippine island that is 90 miles from mainland China is very risky military fear mongering. It may be we are doing that to send a signal to China about Taiwan. This is a very dangerous game. China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner, and Taiwan is one of China’s largest trading partners (No. 5). We should leverage this fact and discuss with China our mutual interests concerning Taiwan. Taiwan does not have to be a stumbling block to more comprehensive agreements with China.

It is in the realm of the possible that the US and China could be the wise principals that stop the school boys from fighting (see posts 9 and 10). We should do this now while we have a clear advantage as the more powerful superpower. The US and China together would ensure the security of UN member states in Europe and Asia. There would no longer be an “anarchic” system with no adult in the schoolyard. Perhaps in 20 to 50 years other great powers will emerge and join the US and China in ensuring security among nations. India may well be one of these great powers in 50 years, or perhaps the EU may emerge as a great power if they ever get their act together. If Europe and Asia are able to reach a point where nations no longer fear for their security, there may be renewed hope for the Middle East.

The vision described in this post is possible but it requires us to see China in more realistic and less fear-filled ways. It also requires us to be realistic and less self righteous about our own missteps concerning NATO and Russia. Only then will we have a chance of having a meaningful dialogue with China about how to end the Russian invasion and join with them to prevent future invasions. This vision eliminates the basic assumption of great power “Realism” of an anarchic world with no superior military to ensure security. It requires the United States to continue to have a strong and modern military that, in conjunction with China, creates an overwhelming force for stability among nations.

For this vision to happen now, we as citizens of the United States, need to make our voices heard. I recently heard of a poll that shows over seventy percent of Americans agree that we should get “tough” on China. I agree. We should get tough on stopping China’s unfair trade practices; we should be tough competitors in gaining influence with countries around the world, especially Africa, the Middle East and India; we should get tough in thwarting China’s spying on us. None of this precludes engaging with China on our mutual interest of creating peace and stability in the world. Getting tough doesn’t mean spouting belligerent rhetoric or casting aspersions about them. It doesn’t look promising as of this date in February, 2023 if one pays attention to how we speak about China both in public and in private.

It is possible to change our perspective about China that is based on a more realistic view of our mutual interests and commonalities. The United States can lead and engage in a new dialogue with China as outlined in this post if the people and the leaders have a will to do so.